Is the Market About to Crash?
Yeah, market sentiment can be tricky to try and figure out. One thing I see or hear over and over again are statements that begin with "I feel like..." and you can fill in the blank like:
- the market is due for a correction
- the market can't keep going up
- the market doesn't make sense
- the market is going to crash
- the market is in a stage of "irrational exuberance"
You get the point.
But "feelings" and "personal beliefs" have absolutely nothing to do with price action no matter how much we don't understand or agree with market sentiment.
Having lived through and experienced first hand Black Monday on Oct 29, 1987 when the DOW dropped 22.6% in a single day, the Dot Com bubble and subsequent burst of the 90s, 9/11 terror attack that completely shut down the markets, the 2008-2010 financial crisis, a couple of "Flash Crashes", and now a global pandemic that has seen the S&P double in the last year? Are you kidding me??? LOL. And to be honest I'm not really that old...
Just goes to show that in the markets anything can happen at anytime and it's all beyond our control regardless of our politics, socio economic status, age, gender, etc.
All we can do as traders and/or investors is react to the market.
Trust me because I've made mistakes in the past based on what I thought the markets should do rather than what they could do.
Technically speaking the markets still have plenty of upside fib targets to hit but whether that happens or not remains to be seen.
In the meantime know that we've been in a 10+ year uptrend that has yet to be broken. In fact, during the last year the markets broke above a 32 year trend line that originated on Black Monday back in 1987...
So think what you want of how/why/who has continued to prop up the markets but it is what it is and know that in the markets anything can happen at any time of which we have no control over. The only thing we can control is how we react to the markets.
One of the best things you can do is to educate yourself as much as possible with respect to trading and investing because at the end of the day it's nothing more than an educated guess...
- Tom Winterstein
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